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Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge Winners

Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge Winners
Type of Crime Time Period
1 Week 2 Weeks 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months
PAI[1] PEI*[2] PAI PEI* PAI PEI* PAI PEI* PAI PEI*
Student
All Calls for Service Warren Yurick Warren Yurick Warren Yurick Warren Yurick Yurick Yurick
Burglary All[3] All All All Yurick Ledray Warren Warren Ledray Ledray
Street Crimes Warren Yurick Warren Yurick Yurick Warren Warren Warren Warren Yurick
Theft of Auto Warren Warren Warren Scarborough Warren Yurick Yurick Warren Yurick Yurick
Small Team/Business
All Calls for Service Tamer
Zone		 William Herlands Tamer
Zone		 Intuidex Tamer
Zone		 Intuidex Tamer
Zone		 Intuidex Tamer
Zone		 Intuidex
Burglary Intuidex Multiple winners[4] Bates Analytics Dylan Fitzpatrick ANDY_NIJ Bates Analytics ANDY_NIJ Bates Analytics KUBQR1 Bates Analytics
Street Crimes MURRAY MIRON William Herlands Tamer
Zone		 Bates Analytics Tamer
Zone		 Intuidex Tamer
Zone		 Steven Yurick Tamer
Zone		 Center for Science and Law[5] / Steven Yurick
Theft of Auto pennaiken CCC pennaiken TADIC pennaiken TADIC Tamer
Zone		 TADIC KUBQR1 PTL
Large Business
All Calls for Service Codilime Team Kernel Glitches PASDA Codilime Codilime Team Kernel Glitches PASDA Codilime Codilime Team Kernel Glitches
Burglary Team Kernel Glitches Team Kernel Glitches Team Kernel Glitches Team Kernel Glitches PASDA IMPAQ PASDA IMPAQ Jeremy Heffner Codilime
Street Crimes Jeremy Heffner GARANT Analytics PASDA Team Kernel Glitches PASDA Conduent Public Safety Solutions PASDA Codilime PASDA Codilime
Theft of Auto GRIER Team Kernel Glitches GRIER Maruan Al-Sedivat GRIER GRIER PASDA Dataiku Inc GRIER Dataiku Inc

Notes

[1](A) Prediction Accuracy Index (PAI)

  • The PAI will measure the effectiveness of the forecasts with the following equation:
    PAI equals the quotien of n divided by N divided by the quotient of a divided by A
  • Where n equals the number of crimes that occur in the forecasted area, N equals the total number of crimes, a equals the forecasted area, and A equals the area of the entire study area.

[2](B) Prediction Efficiency Index* (PEI*)

  • The PEI* will measure the efficiency of the forecast with the following equation:
    PEI* equals PAI divided by PAI*
  • Where PEI* equals the maximum obtainable PAI value for the amount of area forecasted, a. As such:
    PEI* equals n divided by n*
  • Where n* equals the maximum obtainable n for the amount of area forecasted, a.

[3] There was a four-way tie in both PAI and PEI* scores for the one- and two-week burglary forecast — Warren, Yurick, Scarborough, and Ledray

[4] Multiple entrants tied in this category and timeframe: AltMaps CUDY, Dylan Fitzpatrick, GRANTHAM, INTUIDEX, KOONTZ, MURRAY MIRON, PTL, RAPTOR

[5] On December 13, 2017, the leaderboard was updated to include the Center for Science and Law in the Small Team/Business category winner for their top PEI* score for forecasting street crimes in the 3-month time period.

Date Created: June 28, 2017